Vice President J.D. Vance maintains a narrow edge over California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in a new hypothetical poll gauging early sentiment ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
According to the Emerson College survey, 46 percent of respondents said they would support Vance, while 45 percent would back Newsom. Another 10 percent of voters remain undecided.
Though neither Vance nor Newsom has formally announced a campaign for president, both are widely viewed as their respective parties’ frontrunners for 2028.
The latest results reflect consistency with previous polling conducted by Emerson. In a late August survey, Vance led Newsom by less than a single percentage point, while in July, Vance held a 3-point advantage.
“The 2026 congressional ballot and the hypothetical 2028 matchup between Vance and Newsom also remain unchanged, suggesting a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a press release.
“It will be interesting to see whether ‘threats to democracy’ will influence voter attitudes, or if the dominant factor continues to be the economy, which voters — particularly women and younger voters — see as heading in the wrong direction,” Kimball added.
Governor Newsom has spent much of the past year expanding his national presence, emerging as one of the Democratic Party’s most visible figures opposing former President Donald Trump. His social media activity — often mirroring Trump’s direct and combative communication style — has drawn both praise and criticism.
During an August appearance on The Will Cain Show, Vance dismissed Newsom’s online tactics as “inauthentic,” suggesting that the governor’s attempts to mimic Trump’s approach “fall flat with ordinary voters.”
Both politicians have also become central players in contentious redistricting battles. In California, Newsom has spearheaded efforts to reshape congressional districts in a way that could shift five Republican-held seats to Democrats. The proposed map, which appears as Proposition 50 on the state’s November 4 ballot, has sparked fierce debate among voters and legal analysts alike.
Meanwhile, Vance has been involved in similar efforts in the Midwest, making two trips to Indiana within three months to push for redrawn district lines that would create additional Republican seats. However, the effort faces uncertainty after Indiana Gov. Mike Braun expressed skepticism earlier this month about the proposal’s prospects in the State Senate.
The two men also clashed publicly in June, trading barbs on social media after President Donald Trump deployed the National Guard to Los Angeles to quell demonstrations against immigration raids and federal border patrol agents.
The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between October 13 and 14 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Representatives for both Newsom and Vance did not immediately respond to requests for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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