A new Emerson College poll released Friday indicates that nearly six in ten California voters back Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s controversial redistricting initiative, underscoring the growing momentum for Proposition 50 ahead of the November 4 ballot.
The survey found that 57 percent of likely voters in the Golden State support the measure, which would allow the Democratic-controlled legislature to redraw congressional districts with the potential to flip up to five U.S. House seats from Republican to Democratic control. Opposition to the proposal stands at 37 percent, while including undecided voters, support rises to 60 percent, compared with 40 percent who said they would not back the redistricting plan.
Newsom’s office did not respond to requests for comment from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“With less than two weeks until the California special election for Proposition 50, the measure looks likely to pass, with results again outside the poll’s margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. He noted that certain demographic groups that were previously hesitant, such as Black voters, have shifted significantly in favor of the measure, with support rising from 45 percent to 71 percent.
The poll also asked respondents whether they viewed the measure as a good or bad idea, irrespective of their vote intention. A total of 56 percent said they considered Prop 50 a good idea, while 44 percent viewed it negatively. Among voters intending to vote “yes,” 89 percent endorsed the measure as a positive step, and 11 percent disagreed. Conversely, 93 percent of likely “no” voters described it as a bad idea, with just 7 percent supportive.
By comparison, Emerson College’s September survey found that 51 percent of likely voters supported Prop 50, 34 percent opposed it, and 15 percent remained undecided. An earlier August survey from the Politico–Citrin Center–Possibility Lab reported that only 36 percent of Californians favored returning redistricting authority to lawmakers from the state’s current independent Citizens Redistricting Commission.
Newsom’s initiative comes as a response to a redrawn congressional map in Texas, approved by Republicans, which aims to flip up to five previously Democratic-held seats to GOP control.
Former President Barack Obama has weighed in on the issue, asserting that Trump and Republicans are attempting to manipulate congressional maps for partisan advantage, and has appeared in advertisements supporting Prop 50. Newsom, a potential 2028 presidential contender, echoed these concerns in a recent X post, claiming that the Trump administration is “explicitly saying they are going to change the rules of the game in order to insulate themselves from the people’s judgement,” and framing Prop 50 as critical both for California and the nation.
The campaign has also drawn significant financial support from prominent Democratic donors. Billionaire George Soros has reportedly contributed $10 million to bolster the effort, while Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings has donated $2 million, according to Politico.
With the election approaching and strong polling momentum, Newsom’s redistricting effort appears poised to reshape California’s congressional map, potentially cementing Democratic influence in the state for the foreseeable future.
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